New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC
18+Major League Soccer · Sat 26 Sept, 23:30
Data: good
- New York Red Bulls win
- 40%
- Draw
- 23%
- St. Louis City SC win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
New York Red Bulls to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- New York Red Bulls strength rating 1620 v St. Louis City SC 1620
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 46%, goals 32%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model32%
Component disagreement: 14.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.