Dungannon Swifts v Ballymena United
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Dungannon Swifts win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Ballymena United win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Dungannon Swifts to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Dungannon Swifts strength rating 1627 v Ballymena United 1613
- Dungannon Swifts home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Ballymena United away form: 1W 1D 2L, 8 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Dungannon Swifts +1 v Ballymena United -1
- Dungannon Swifts have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 48%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 7.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.