Colwyn Bay v Haverfordwest County
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 26 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Colwyn Bay win
- 60%
- Draw
- 19%
- Haverfordwest County win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Colwyn Bay to win
Model probability 60%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Haverfordwest County 1586
- Colwyn Bay home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
- Haverfordwest County away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Colwyn Bay +3 v Haverfordwest County -8
- Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 56%, goals 60%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Haverfordwest County are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model56%
- Goals model60%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 11.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 60% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 60%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.