Parma v Genoa

18+

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

Data: excellent

Parma win: 51%
Draw: 22%
Genoa win: 27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Parma to win

Model probability 51%

Predicted scoreline

1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Parma strength rating 1601 v Genoa 1591
Superior goal difference: Parma -4 v Genoa -6
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model48%
Goals model47%
Recent-form model63%

Component disagreement: 15.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02), now 51%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:02. Read the methodology.