Sporting CP v Arouca
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 19 Sept, 19:30
Data: excellent
- Sporting CP win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Arouca win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score57 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sporting CP strength rating 1656 v Arouca 1629
- Sporting CP home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Arouca away form: 1W 1D 1L, 1 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Sporting CP +9 v Arouca +3
- Sporting CP unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 51%, goals 53%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Arouca have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 3.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.