NEC v Go Ahead Eagles
18+Eredivisie · Sun 20 Sept, 14:45
Data: excellent
- NEC win
- 42%
- Draw
- 24%
- Go Ahead Eagles win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
NEC to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- NEC strength rating 1614 v Go Ahead Eagles 1628
- NEC home record this season: 0W 1D 2L
- Go Ahead Eagles away form: 0W 2D 1L, 7 scored / 10 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 44%, goals 45%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Go Ahead Eagles are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 10.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.