Linfield v Crusaders
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Linfield win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- Crusaders win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Linfield to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Linfield strength rating 1641 v Crusaders 1627
- Linfield home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Crusaders away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Linfield +3 v Crusaders +1
- Linfield unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 49%, recent form 53%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model49%
- Recent-form model53%
Component disagreement: 4.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.