Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim
18+Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept, 17:30
Data: good
- Paderborn win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- TSG Hoffenheim win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Paderborn to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Paderborn strength rating 1604 v TSG Hoffenheim 1613
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 40%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 10.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.