Alloa Athletic v East Kilbride
18+Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Alloa Athletic win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- East Kilbride win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Alloa Athletic to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Alloa Athletic strength rating 1509 v East Kilbride 1499
- Alloa Athletic home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- East Kilbride away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Alloa Athletic +3 v East Kilbride +1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 9.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:06), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.