St Johnstone v Falkirk
18+Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- St Johnstone win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Falkirk win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
St Johnstone to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- St Johnstone strength rating 1614 v Falkirk 1604
- St Johnstone home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Falkirk away form: 0W 2D 1L, 2 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: St Johnstone -1 v Falkirk -3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 59%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model59%
Component disagreement: 11.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.