Colchester United v Cheltenham Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Colchester United win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- Cheltenham Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Colchester United to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Colchester United strength rating 1434 v Cheltenham Town 1456
- Colchester United home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Cheltenham Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 42%, goals 38%, recent form 43%)
Main uncertainty: Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model43%
Component disagreement: 5.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.