Fulham v Manchester United
18+Premier League · Sun 20 Sept, 15:30
Data: excellent
- Fulham win
- 39%
- Draw
- 24%
- Manchester United win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
Fulham to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Fulham strength rating 1601 v Manchester United 1616
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 43%, goals 40%, recent form 30%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model30%
Component disagreement: 13.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.