OGC Nice v Lille OSC
18+Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sept, 15:15
Data: excellent
- OGC Nice win
- 31%
- Draw
- 26%
- Lille OSC win
- 44%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lille OSC to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lille OSC strength rating 1645 v OGC Nice 1604
- Superior goal difference: Lille OSC +5 v OGC Nice -4
- Lille OSC unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 34%, goals 46%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 28 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 27.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.