Cardiff Metropolitan University v Caernarfon Town
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 26 Sept, 13:30
Data: good
- Cardiff Metropolitan University win
- 40%
- Draw
- 24%
- Caernarfon Town win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cardiff Metropolitan University to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score31 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cardiff Metropolitan University strength rating 1648 v Caernarfon Town 1667
- Cardiff Metropolitan University home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Caernarfon Town away form: 4W 1D 0L, 15 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 42%, recent form 32%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Caernarfon Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model32%
Component disagreement: 10.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.