CA Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano
18+La Liga · Sat 19 Sept, 12:00
Data: excellent
- CA Osasuna win
- 50%
- Draw
- 21%
- Rayo Vallecano win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
CA Osasuna to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- CA Osasuna strength rating 1611 v Rayo Vallecano 1608
- CA Osasuna home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Rayo Vallecano away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: CA Osasuna -3 v Rayo Vallecano -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 47%, goals 49%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model49%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 13.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.