Crewe Alexandra v Bristol Rovers
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Crewe Alexandra win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bristol Rovers win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Crewe Alexandra to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1452 v Bristol Rovers 1458
- Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Bristol Rovers away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Crewe Alexandra unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 43%)
Main uncertainty: Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model43%
Component disagreement: 3.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.