Rochdale v Swindon Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Rochdale win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Swindon Town win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Rochdale to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Rochdale strength rating 1414 v Swindon Town 1439
- Rochdale home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Swindon Town away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 39%, recent form 37%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model37%
Component disagreement: 4.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.