Cardiff City v Charlton Athletic
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Cardiff City win
- 39%
- Draw
- 26%
- Charlton Athletic win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cardiff City to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cardiff City strength rating 1541 v Charlton Athletic 1563
- Cardiff City home record this season: 0W 3D 0L
- Charlton Athletic away form: 1W 1D 1L, 3 scored / 6 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 42%, goals 39%, recent form 31%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Charlton Athletic are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model31%
Component disagreement: 10.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.