Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa

18+

Premier League · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30

Data: excellent

Tottenham Hotspur win: 47%
Draw: 25%
Aston Villa win: 29%

FootyGrounds prediction

Tottenham Hotspur to win

Model probability 47%

Predicted scoreline

1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Tottenham Hotspur strength rating 1599 v Aston Villa 1595
Superior goal difference: Tottenham Hotspur -5 v Aston Villa -6
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 42%, recent form 54%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model47%
Goals model42%
Recent-form model54%

Component disagreement: 11.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 47%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.