St. Louis City SC v Toronto FC
18+Major League Soccer · Sun 20 Sept, 00:30
Data: good
- St. Louis City SC win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Toronto FC win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
St. Louis City SC to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- St. Louis City SC strength rating 1620 v Toronto FC 1620
- Superior goal difference: St. Louis City SC +7 v Toronto FC -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 46%, goals 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model57%
Component disagreement: 10.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.