Valencia CF v Real Madrid
18+La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Valencia CF win
- 25%
- Draw
- 22%
- Real Madrid win
- 53%
FootyGrounds prediction
Real Madrid to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Real Madrid strength rating 1674 v Valencia CF 1579
- Real Madrid away record this season: 3W 0D 2L
- Valencia CF home form: 0W 2D 4L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Real Madrid +15 v Valencia CF -10
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 43%, goals 61%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model61%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 17.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.