Hartlepool United v Harrogate Town
18+National League · Tue 29 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Hartlepool United win
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- Harrogate Town win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hartlepool United to win
Model probability 37%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score32 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hartlepool United strength rating 1375 v Harrogate Town 1407
- Hartlepool United home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Harrogate Town away form: 2W 0D 1L, 6 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 40%, goals 35%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Harrogate Town are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model40%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 5.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 37% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 37%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.