Coleraine v Linfield
18+NIFL Premiership · Fri 25 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Coleraine win
- 51%
- Draw
- 23%
- Linfield win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Coleraine to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Coleraine strength rating 1675 v Linfield 1641
- Coleraine home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Linfield away form: 2W 1D 0L, 4 scored / 1 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Coleraine +12 v Linfield +3
- Coleraine unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 53%, goals 56%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Linfield are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Linfield have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 16.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.