AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons
18+EFL League One · Thu 17 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- AFC Wimbledon win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Milton Keynes Dons win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
AFC Wimbledon to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AFC Wimbledon strength rating 1501 v Milton Keynes Dons 1491
- AFC Wimbledon home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Milton Keynes Dons away form: 0W 2D 1L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
- AFC Wimbledon have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 44%, recent form 64%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Milton Keynes Dons are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model64%
Component disagreement: 20.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.