East Fife v Montrose
18+Scottish League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- East Fife win
- 45%
- Draw
- 26%
- Montrose win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
East Fife to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- East Fife strength rating 1503 v Montrose 1504
- East Fife home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Montrose away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: East Fife +1 v Montrose -1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 47%, recent form 38%)
Main uncertainty: Montrose are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model38%
Component disagreement: 8.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:06), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.