Atlético Madrid v FC Barcelona
18+La Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Atlético Madrid win
- 39%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Barcelona win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Atlético Madrid strength rating 1684 v FC Barcelona 1713
- Atlético Madrid home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
- FC Barcelona away form: 5W 0D 0L, 22 scored / 5 conceded
- Atlético Madrid unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 41%, goals 37%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: FC Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 3.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.