Hornchurch v Scunthorpe United
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 16:30
Data: good
- Hornchurch win
- 48%
- Draw
- 23%
- Scunthorpe United win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hornchurch to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hornchurch strength rating 1374 v Scunthorpe United 1371
- Hornchurch home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Scunthorpe United away form: 1W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 46%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 8.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.