Kidderminster Harriers v Gateshead
18+National League · Wed 16 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Kidderminster Harriers win
- 63%
- Draw
- 17%
- Gateshead win
- 19%
FootyGrounds prediction
Kidderminster Harriers to win
Model probability 63%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Kidderminster Harriers strength rating 1408 v Gateshead 1350
- Kidderminster Harriers home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Gateshead away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Kidderminster Harriers +5 v Gateshead -8
- Kidderminster Harriers unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 63% (Elo 57%, goals 64%, recent form 76%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model64%
- Recent-form model76%
Component disagreement: 19.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 63% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 63%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.