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Larne v Dungannon Swifts

18+

NIFL Premiership · Fri 25 Sept, 18:45

Data: limited
Larne win
40%
Draw
27%
Dungannon Swifts win
33%

FootyGrounds prediction

Larne to win

Model probability 40%

Predicted scoreline

1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score25 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

  • Larne strength rating 1630 v Dungannon Swifts 1645
  • Dungannon Swifts away form: 3W 0D 0L, 5 scored / 0 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 38%)

Main uncertainty: Dungannon Swifts are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Dungannon Swifts have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. Limited data recorded for this fixture so far this season.

Model agreement

Model components

  • Elo strength model43%
  • Goals model37%
  • Recent-form model38%

Component disagreement: 5.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 40% (calculated 11/09/2026, 10:20:02), now 40%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 11/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.