Barnet v York City
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Barnet win
- 49%
- Draw
- 22%
- York City win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barnet to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barnet strength rating 1464 v York City 1457
- Barnet home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- York City away form: 0W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 47%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: York City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 6.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 14/09/2026, 18:20:05), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 14/09/2026, 20:20:08. Read the methodology.