Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
18+EFL League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Milton Keynes Dons win
- 46%
- Draw
- 24%
- Burton Albion win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Milton Keynes Dons to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Milton Keynes Dons strength rating 1490 v Burton Albion 1498
- Milton Keynes Dons home record this season: 2W 3D 1L
- Burton Albion away form: 2W 1D 3L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
- Milton Keynes Dons have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 44%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: Burton Albion are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 8.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.