Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Stevenage win
- 40%
- Draw
- 24%
- Sheffield Wednesday win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stevenage to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score35 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stevenage strength rating 1515 v Sheffield Wednesday 1527
- Stevenage home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Sheffield Wednesday away form: 3W 0D 0L, 6 scored / 3 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 44%, goals 41%, recent form 30%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model30%
Component disagreement: 13.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 14/09/2026, 18:20:05), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 14/09/2026, 20:20:08. Read the methodology.