Cambridge United v AFC Wimbledon
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Cambridge United win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- AFC Wimbledon win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Cambridge United to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Cambridge United strength rating 1511 v AFC Wimbledon 1501
- Cambridge United home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- AFC Wimbledon away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Cambridge United +2 v AFC Wimbledon -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 51%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 3.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.