AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool
18+Premier League · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00
Data: excellent
- AFC Bournemouth win
- 38%
- Draw
- 25%
- Liverpool win
- 37%
FootyGrounds prediction
AFC Bournemouth to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AFC Bournemouth strength rating 1615 v Liverpool 1641
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 41%, goals 39%, recent form 29%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model29%
Component disagreement: 11.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.