Grimsby Town v Shrewsbury Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Grimsby Town win
- 59%
- Draw
- 20%
- Shrewsbury Town win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Grimsby Town to win
Model probability 59%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Grimsby Town strength rating 1454 v Shrewsbury Town 1418
- Grimsby Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Shrewsbury Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +3 v Shrewsbury Town -6
- Grimsby Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 53%, goals 59%, recent form 70%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model70%
Component disagreement: 16.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 59% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 59%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.