FC Porto v Benfica
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 20 Sept, 19:30
Data: excellent
- FC Porto win
- 44%
- Draw
- 24%
- Benfica win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Porto to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Porto strength rating 1676 v Benfica 1680
- FC Porto home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Benfica away form: 3W 0D 0L, 14 scored / 0 conceded
- FC Porto unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 45%, goals 44%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: Benfica are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Benfica have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 4.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.