Greenock Morton v Dunfermline Athletic
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Greenock Morton win
- 30%
- Draw
- 27%
- Dunfermline Athletic win
- 43%
FootyGrounds prediction
Dunfermline Athletic to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Dunfermline Athletic strength rating 1565 v Greenock Morton 1519
- Dunfermline Athletic away record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Greenock Morton home form: 0W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Dunfermline Athletic +1 v Greenock Morton -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 34%, goals 44%, recent form 59%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 25 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model59%
Component disagreement: 24.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.