AFC Wimbledon v Stevenage
18+EFL League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- AFC Wimbledon win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- Stevenage win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
AFC Wimbledon to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AFC Wimbledon strength rating 1501 v Stevenage 1515
- AFC Wimbledon home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Stevenage away form: 1W 2D 0L, 6 scored / 2 conceded
- AFC Wimbledon have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 43%, goals 35%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Stevenage are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Stevenage have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 11.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 14/09/2026, 18:20:05), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 14/09/2026, 20:20:08. Read the methodology.