Sutton United v Forest Green Rovers
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Sutton United win
- 45%
- Draw
- 25%
- Forest Green Rovers win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sutton United to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sutton United strength rating 1380 v Forest Green Rovers 1382
- Sutton United home record this season: 3W 0D 2L
- Forest Green Rovers away form: 2W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 43%, recent form 45%)
Main uncertainty: Forest Green Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model45%
Component disagreement: 2.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.