Manchester City v Sunderland
18+Premier League · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00
Data: excellent
- Manchester City win
- 58%
- Draw
- 20%
- Sunderland win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Manchester City to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Manchester City strength rating 1650 v Sunderland 1609
- Manchester City home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Superior goal difference: Manchester City +6 v Sunderland -2
- Manchester City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 54%, goals 59%, recent form 68%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model68%
Component disagreement: 14.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.