Grimsby Town v Crawley Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Grimsby Town win
- 56%
- Draw
- 20%
- Crawley Town win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Grimsby Town to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Grimsby Town strength rating 1454 v Crawley Town 1413
- Grimsby Town home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Crawley Town away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Grimsby Town +3 v Crawley Town -5
- Grimsby Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 54%, goals 59%, recent form 59%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model59%
Component disagreement: 5.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.