Haverfordwest County v Holywell Town
18+Cymru Premier · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Haverfordwest County win
- 61%
- Draw
- 17%
- Holywell Town win
- 21%
FootyGrounds prediction
Haverfordwest County to win
Model probability 61%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Haverfordwest County strength rating 1586 v Holywell Town 1540
- Haverfordwest County home record this season: 2W 0D 3L
- Holywell Town away form: 0W 0D 4L, 5 scored / 17 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Haverfordwest County -8 v Holywell Town -23
- Holywell Town played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 55%, goals 59%, recent form 79%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model79%
Component disagreement: 24.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 61% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 61%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.