Vitória de Guimarães v Moreirense
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 20 Sept, 14:30
Data: excellent
- Vitória de Guimarães win
- 45%
- Draw
- 25%
- Moreirense win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Vitória de Guimarães to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Vitória de Guimarães strength rating 1603 v Moreirense 1605
- Vitória de Guimarães home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Moreirense away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Vitória de Guimarães -3 v Moreirense -6
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 47%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 7.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.