Aldershot Town v Tamworth
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Aldershot Town win
- 61%
- Draw
- 18%
- Tamworth win
- 21%
FootyGrounds prediction
Aldershot Town to win
Model probability 61%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Aldershot Town strength rating 1400 v Tamworth 1350
- Aldershot Town home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Tamworth away form: 0W 1D 4L, 8 scored / 16 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Aldershot Town +4 v Tamworth -8
- Aldershot Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 55%, goals 63%, recent form 71%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model63%
- Recent-form model71%
Component disagreement: 16.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 61% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 61%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.