Luton Town v Bradford City
18+EFL League One · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Luton Town win
- 41%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bradford City win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Luton Town to win
Model probability 41%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Luton Town strength rating 1500 v Bradford City 1511
- Luton Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Bradford City away form: 2W 0D 1L, 2 scored / 2 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 40%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. Bradford City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 10.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 41%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.