Venezia v Lazio
18+Serie A · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Venezia win
- 28%
- Draw
- 24%
- Lazio win
- 48%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lazio to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lazio strength rating 1639 v Venezia 1585
- Superior goal difference: Lazio +3 v Venezia -7
- Lazio unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 35%, goals 48%, recent form 79%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 44 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model79%
Component disagreement: 44.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:02. Read the methodology.