Accrington Stanley v Newport County
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Accrington Stanley win
- 49%
- Draw
- 21%
- Newport County win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Accrington Stanley to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Accrington Stanley strength rating 1428 v Newport County 1431
- Accrington Stanley home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Newport County away form: 0W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 46%, goals 45%, recent form 64%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model64%
Component disagreement: 19.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.