Connah's Quay Nomads v Cardiff Metropolitan University
18+Cymru Premier · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Connah's Quay Nomads win
- 52%
- Draw
- 21%
- Cardiff Metropolitan University win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Connah's Quay Nomads to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Connah's Quay Nomads strength rating 1666 v Cardiff Metropolitan University 1648
- Connah's Quay Nomads home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Cardiff Metropolitan University away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Connah's Quay Nomads +15 v Cardiff Metropolitan University +9
- Connah's Quay Nomads have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 49%)
Main uncertainty: Cardiff Metropolitan University are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Cardiff Metropolitan University have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model49%
Component disagreement: 6.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.