Livingston v Ayr United
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Livingston win
- 55%
- Draw
- 21%
- Ayr United win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Livingston to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Livingston strength rating 1570 v Ayr United 1544
- Livingston home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Ayr United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Livingston +3 v Ayr United -3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 54%, recent form 66%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model66%
Component disagreement: 14.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 55% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.