Chesterfield v Tranmere Rovers
18+EFL League Two · Sat 3 Oct, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Chesterfield win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Tranmere Rovers win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Chesterfield strength rating 1442 v Tranmere Rovers 1448
- Chesterfield home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Tranmere Rovers away form: 0W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 41%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 4.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.